Quad Aces Vs Royal Flush
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Neutrino
So I was doing some math today on Video Poker and ran into an interesting situation.
It's 9/6 JOB (the concept could apply to other video poker as well), I got 3 to royal with an ace and a ten, another card of the same suit, and a random non-blocker (such as Ad, Kd, Td, 4d, 2s).
I ran it through the calculator and it suggested the optimal play is keep 3 to royal with an EV of 6.434 per 5 units bet, and the runner up is 4 to flush with a EV of 6.383
That is a difference of only 0.012 EV per unit
So that makes me wonder, if going for royal here is indeed the correct play. Because if god forbid, you hit that royal (I've never hit a royal in my life on 1 line), you'll get taxed and you're 'supposed' to tip, not to mention the exact thing you're tipping for - hand pay - is going to inconvenience you and waste maybe a good half an hour of your time.
In addition, going for 4-flush also significantly reduces variance. Usually reducing variance is desirable.
So with all that in consideration, is it still the best play to go for 3 to royal? What do you guys think?
Personally after contemplating that I've decided that small EV gain is not worth the negative sides of hitting a royal. So from now on I'm keeping 4-flush in a situation like this.
It's 9/6 JOB (the concept could apply to other video poker as well), I got 3 to royal with an ace and a ten, another card of the same suit, and a random non-blocker (such as Ad, Kd, Td, 4d, 2s).
I ran it through the calculator and it suggested the optimal play is keep 3 to royal with an EV of 6.434 per 5 units bet, and the runner up is 4 to flush with a EV of 6.383
That is a difference of only 0.012 EV per unit
So that makes me wonder, if going for royal here is indeed the correct play. Because if god forbid, you hit that royal (I've never hit a royal in my life on 1 line), you'll get taxed and you're 'supposed' to tip, not to mention the exact thing you're tipping for - hand pay - is going to inconvenience you and waste maybe a good half an hour of your time.
In addition, going for 4-flush also significantly reduces variance. Usually reducing variance is desirable.
So with all that in consideration, is it still the best play to go for 3 to royal? What do you guys think?
Personally after contemplating that I've decided that small EV gain is not worth the negative sides of hitting a royal. So from now on I'm keeping 4-flush in a situation like this.
Ibeatyouraces
I always follow optimal strategy for 9/6 JoB. So in this case, I go for the royal. Now if the hand is Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, Kc, I'm going for the flush instead.
RS
It's up to you, really. I don't think holding the 4-flush is an awful play, when you take in the other considerations (variance, hand-pay, slow down play, etc.).
ThatDonGuy
It depends on the game.
Jacks or Better, 8/5 or worse: keep the 3/Royal.
Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal.
9/7/5 Bonus Poker: keep the 3/Royal only if it's K Q J or Q J 10.
Jacks or Better, 8/5 or worse: keep the 3/Royal.
Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal.
9/7/5 Bonus Poker: keep the 3/Royal only if it's K Q J or Q J 10.
Ibeatyouraces
Wsop Quad Aces Vs Royal Flush
...Jacks or Better, 9/6 or better: if the 3/Royal includes both an Ace and a 10, keep the 4/Flush; otherwise, keep the 3/Royal...
Almost. This depends on the other two cards. In order for the four card flush draw to be correct, one of the others must be the same suit and the other must be a 10 or missing straight card.
Example Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, Ks = flush draw. Ah, Jh, 10h, 4h, 6s = royal draw.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Neutrino
You guys don't mind getting taxed on the royal? I'm not sure how to do the calculation here but my instincts tell me the taxes alone may offset the EV difference from 3-royal.
Ibeatyouraces
You guys don't mind getting taxed on the royal? I'm not sure how to do the calculation here but my instincts tell me the taxes alone may offset the EV difference from 3-royal.
Most are losing gamblers anyway. Just write it off and you'll owe no taxes.
Quad Aces Vs Royal Flush
Also, quarter royals aren't taxed...yet.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DJTeddyBear
According to the Wizard's analyzer, http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/Holding the 3 to a Royal is worth 1.286 while holding the 4 to a Flush is worth 1.276
Quad Aces Royal Flush
So, yeah, it's kind of a coin toss...I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Quad Aces Vs Royal Flush Odds
boymimbo
It is no coin toss when taxes are taken into effect and you do not itemize. Take the 4 to a flush.----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ibeatyouraces
Why even play if you don't want a royal? Makes absolutely no sense.
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